Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d59…8538 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$179 (+21%) realized +$187 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$161
crypto 6% +$34
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 64% +18.0%
≤30d 14 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 64% +18.0%
≤90d 14 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 64% +18.0%
all 14 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 64% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 64% +18.0%
10% -20.8% 57% +6.7%
15% -28.4% 50% -3.6%
20% -35.4% 43% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$19 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $96 $88 −$8 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $122 +$67 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$25 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$34 +68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $80 +$9 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$45 +75%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$43 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$15 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$57 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $98 35m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $122 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $69 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.82 · official $178.82 (match) · 31 history records