Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9D 0x9d55…edde crypto 1224 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+2%) realized +$132 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%641W / 580L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day110.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$83
14 days−$49
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$39
world 6% +$32
other 5% +$11
politics 1% +$6
finance 1% +$2
sports 1% −$1
tech 1% +$4
economics 0% +$2
culture 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 49% -13.3%
≤30d 1221 +0.1% -9.5% 52% 44% -8.2%
≤90d 1221 +0.1% -9.5% 52% 44% -8.2%
all 1221 +0.1% -9.5% 52% 44% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 44% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 40% -17.0%
15% -26.0% 33% -25.0%
20% -33.3% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses641 / 580
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1221 / 1224
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day110.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yeet launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 66¢ 63¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 23¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.62 · official $4.26 (match) · 3500 history records