Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9d53…149c sports 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,948 (+4%) realized +$2,977 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate61%101W / 64L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$403est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$245
other 2% +$96
crypto 1% −$138
weather 1% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 26% -19.0%
≤30d 140 -5.8% -14.7% 64% 23% -8.4%
≤90d 164 -9.3% -17.9% 62% 23% -8.5%
all 165 -9.9% -18.4% 61% 23% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 23% -8.5%
10% -26.2% 12% -17.2%
15% -33.4% 5% -25.2%
20% -39.9% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$167 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$2,977
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses101 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$403
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage115d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 50¢ 70¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Minnesota Lynx 50¢ 42¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 30¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $51 +$31 +60%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $112 +$156 +140%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $550 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$70 -69%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $56 −$46 -81%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $302 +$52 +17%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $132 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,512 −$433 -29%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $357 −$12 -3%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $62 −$61 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $117 −$94 -80%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $354 +$56 +16%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $252 +$58 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $119 +$40 +34%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $515 +$235 +46%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $252 +$101 +40%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $507 +$407 +80%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $151 +$53 +35%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $620 +$584 +94%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $170 −$124 -73%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $501 +$26 +5%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $500 $0 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $500 +$24 +5%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $1,007 −$5 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $481 +$200 +42%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $902 +$46 +5%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $502 −$163 -32%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $2,165 −$1,728 -80%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 06 $2,000 +$41 +2%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $2,000 $0 +0%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $2,000 +$60 +3%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $1,502 +$93 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $807 +$318 +39%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $2,000 +$320 +16%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $2,000 +$188 +9%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $2,000 +$103 +5%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $2,000 +$87 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,682 −$830 -15%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $1,001 +$41 +4%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $1,100 +$106 +10%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $1,800 +$193 +11%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $1,418 +$120 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $39 40m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $6 40m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $6 40m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 1¢ $2 1h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 85¢ $81 1h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 52¢ $51 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Toronto Tempo 87¢ $269 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 36¢ $102 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 34¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $14 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $8 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $0 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 16¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 19¢ $31 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 58¢ $101 5d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 3¢ $5 5d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 7¢ $10 5d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 3¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.50 · official $141.50 (match) · 784 history records