Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9D 0x9d4f…ac6e other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$111 (+23%) realized +$192 · open −$81

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$120per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+19.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+44.3%	+30.6%	100%	100%	+29.7%
≤30d	3	+31.8%	+19.2%	100%	67%	+18.3%
≤90d	3	+31.8%	+19.2%	100%	67%	+18.3%
all	3	+31.8%	+19.2%	100%	67%	+18.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.2%	67%	+18.3%
10%	+7.8%	67%	+6.9%
15%	-2.6%	67%	-3.4%
20%	-12.1%	33%	-12.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$44

Realized+$192

Unrealized−$81

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage15d

Avg bet$120

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	51¢	18¢	$125	$44	−$81 (-65%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	+$53	+52%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz	Jun 15	$130	+$47	+36%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	Jun 13	$121	+$8	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$76	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	2d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz	SELL No	100¢	$177	5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz	BUY No	72¢	$130	7d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	BUY Yes	93¢	$121	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.17 · official $44.17 (match) · 8 history records