Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9d4e…cf0a sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$186 (+10%) realized +$182 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$320
14 days+$335
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$259
other 29% +$25
crypto 8% −$91
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +47.3% +33.3% 62% 62% +35.6%
≤30d 58 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 40% -0.1%
≤90d 58 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 40% -0.1%
all 58 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 40% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 40% -0.1%
10% -24.4% 36% -9.6%
15% -31.7% 36% -18.4%
20% -38.4% 34% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$19 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 35
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions11
Markets (closed)58 / 69
History coverage23d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 55¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $20 +$2 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 +$49 +120%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 +$64 +388%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $34 +$37 +109%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$31 +152%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$52 +510%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$81 +158%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $22 −$21 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$14 +90%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$34 +165%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$14 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$14 +93%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 −$3 -2%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$24 +119%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $153 +$232 +152%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$13 -64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $28 −$27 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 11¢ $5 59m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 26¢ $20 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 16h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $20 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 47¢ $20 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $34 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $20 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.95 · official $300.74 (match) · 114 history records