Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d4e…313f other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$17
politics 22% −$8
sports 15% −$47
tech 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$3
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 115 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 5% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage132d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $436 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $251 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $223 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $209 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $231 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $253 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $461 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $454 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $409 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $377 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $469 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $410 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $870 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $259 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $276 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $227 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $197 20d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $197 30d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $230 33d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $230 35d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $257 40d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $257 47d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 47d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 48d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $182 49d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $182 49d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $252 50d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $252 51d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $261 51d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $261 51d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $251 51d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $251 51d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $198 52d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 53d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $223 53d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $223 53d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $204 53d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $204 54d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $209 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.92 · official $100.92 (match) · 355 history records