Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9d4c…f672 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$91 (+7%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$119
sports 18% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +15.6% +4.5% 100% 67% +2.1%
≤30d 9 +15.6% +4.5% 100% 67% +2.1%
≤90d 9 +15.6% +4.5% 100% 67% +2.1%
all 9 +15.6% +4.5% 100% 67% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 67% +2.1%
10% -5.5% 11% -7.7%
15% -14.6% 11% -16.6%
20% -23.0% 0% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $239 +$47 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $209 +$30 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $184 +$24 +13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $151 +$26 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $131 +$21 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $130 +$4 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $129 +$4 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $119 +$6 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $239 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 87¢ $209 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $184 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $151 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $131 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $135 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $130 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records