Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d4a…6cb1 other 371 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 241d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,888 (-1%) realized −$2,167 · open +$279
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate70%251W / 108L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$628per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$6,877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 242d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$3,046
culture 17% +$4,270
politics 11% +$576
tech 10% +$875
world 8% +$954
sports 2% −$559
weather 1% −$1,189
economics 0% +$8
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.7% +1.0% 80% 60% -11.9%
≤30d 11 +11.9% +1.2% 73% 55% -10.9%
≤90d 54 -13.0% -21.3% 63% 31% -20.1%
all 359 +4.0% -5.9% 70% 28% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 28% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 16% -17.6%
15% -23.1% 12% -25.5%
20% -30.6% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$559) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$179 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$6,877
Realized−$2,167
Unrealized+$279
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses251 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions12
Markets (closed)359 / 371
History coverage242d ⚠
Avg bet$628
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 80¢ 88¢ $4,192 $4,661 +$469 (+11%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $1,246 $1,145 −$101 (-8%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $510 $534 +$24 (+5%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $434 $413 −$21 (-5%)
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026? Yes 95¢ 67¢ $80 $56 −$23 (-29%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 59¢ 74¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+25%)
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No 46¢ 81¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+78%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 48¢ $80 $3 −$77 (-96%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 82¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $754 −$342 -45%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $519 +$79 +15%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $221 +$146 +66%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by Dece Jun 19 $469 +$10 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 18 $245 +$50 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $180 +$257 +143%
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Jun 13 $872 −$872 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $409 +$132 +32%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $429 +$43 +10%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 10 $520 −$452 -87%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? May 29 $1,161 +$862 +74%
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? May 23 $24 +$5 +21%
Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30? May 23 $42 +$5 +11%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? May 21 $121 −$71 -58%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $670 −$315 -47%
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? May 14 $55 +$33 +61%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $670 −$558 -83%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April May 12 $206 +$18 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $710 +$569 +80%
Will April 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? May 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 12 $393 −$356 -90%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April May 12 $440 −$436 -99%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April May 12 $533 −$533 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026? May 12 $263 −$263 -100%
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? May 09 $1,292 +$195 +15%
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30? Apr 29 $391 +$34 +9%
Will MrBeast hit 119 billion views by April 30? Apr 26 $167 +$8 +5%
Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30? Apr 26 $243 −$179 -74%
Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Apr 17 $224 +$56 +25%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April Apr 16 $11 +$5 +42%
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 16 $888 −$121 -14%
Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 12 $95 −$42 -44%
Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 12 $935 +$27 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 11 $470 +$31 +7%
Will MrBeast hit 118.5 billion views by April 30? Apr 10 $57 +$3 +4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March Apr 09 $370 +$1 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March Apr 09 $349 +$20 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Apr 08 $464 +$4 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? Apr 07 $459 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 05 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 05 $43 +$2 +5%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $76 +$16 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $205 +$36 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 20m
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $0 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $83 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 1h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 89¢ $353 5h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 89¢ $3 5h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $657 33h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 76¢ $218 39h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 41h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 42h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $125 42h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $271 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,876.58 · official $6,876.58 (match) · 3500 history records