Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d48…a5f2 crypto 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (282 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%125W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day281.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$157
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (282 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 45% -6.7%
≤30d 242 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 45% -6.7%
≤90d 242 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 45% -6.7%
all 242 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 45% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover281.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 45% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 39% -15.7%
15% -28.4% 31% -23.8%
20% -35.4% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses125 / 117
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day281.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $156 +$80 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $62 −$27 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$8 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $215 +$62 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $55 +$29 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$8 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $140 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $35 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $62 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $274 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $200 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 902 history records