Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d47…45d3
sports · 181 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$198 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$205 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses80 / 96
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)176 / 181
History coverage420d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 4 History 176 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$26
14 days+$37
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 242.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 224.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $15 +$30 +199%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$4 +388%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $24 +$11 +45%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 28 $8 −$2 -21%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $93 −$62 -67%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $18 −$9 -52%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 06 $5 −$3 -61%
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5 Mar 04 $5 +$6 +117%
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 243.5 Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5 Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5 Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5 Mar 03 $5 +$4 +89%
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5 Mar 03 $5 +$5 +108%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Mar 02 $5 +$6 +127%
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5 Mar 01 $4 +$4 +96%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 Feb 28 $3 +$3 +96%
Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 210.5 Feb 28 $3 +$3 +100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5 Feb 28 $3 +$4 +104%
Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5 Feb 28 $3 +$5 +138%
Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5 Feb 27 $1 +$1 +92%
Spurs vs. Nets: O/U 226.5 Feb 27 $1 +$2 +117%
Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5 Feb 27 $1 +$2 +108%
Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5 Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5 Feb 26 $1 +$1 +104%
Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Feb 26 $1 +$1 +113%
Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5 Feb 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5 Feb 24 $8 +$7 +92%
76ers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5 Feb 23 $4 +$4 +96%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Feb 22 $5 −$3 -64%
Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 235.5 Feb 22 $1 +$1 +85%
Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5 Feb 22 $1 +$1 +100%
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5 Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5 Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$79
culture 15% −$98
crypto 6% −$10
economics 2% −$13
other 1% +$2
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $4 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 12h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $1 12h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY 2¢ $1 23h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 39h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 39h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 39h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 13d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 17d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 18d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL Yes 2¢ $2 34d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 37d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 37d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $43 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +15.6% +4.6% 22% 22% +76.9%
≤30d 11 +14.9% +4.0% 27% 27% +44.0%
≤90d 17 -16.2% -24.2% 18% 18% -36.6%
all 176 -5.0% -14.1% 45% 44% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 44% -31.2%
10% -22.3% 41% -37.8%
15% -29.8% 39% -43.8%
20% -36.7% 38% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.49 · official $17.49 (match) · 338 history records