Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d46…779c
other · 9 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
−$304 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$285 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,091
Realized−$285
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 5 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$285
7 days−$285
14 days−$285
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $26 +$14 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$25 +99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,370 −$300 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 53% −$300
other 45% +$7
sports 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 52m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $26 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $51 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $26 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $519 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $519 27h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 57¢ $1,070 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,226 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 69¢ $143 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 50% -27.4%
≤30d 4 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 50% -27.4%
≤90d 4 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 50% -27.4%
all 4 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 50% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 50% -27.4%
10% -11.3% 50% -34.3%
15% -19.9% 50% -40.7%
20% -27.8% 50% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,091.24 · official $1,091.24 (match) · 16 history records