Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9D 0x9d45…b661 crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 222d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$33,424 (+122%) realized +$33,402 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate29%62W / 149L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 222d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$3,457
other 25% +$219
tech 6% +$232
finance 5% −$169
politics 3% −$12
world 2% +$31
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.4% -2.8% 83% 17% -4.7%
≤30d 31 -4.0% -13.1% 52% 13% -18.2%
≤90d 167 -33.9% -40.2% 28% 16% -20.1%
all 211 -33.6% -39.9% 29% 19% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 19% -20.6%
10% -45.7% 15% -28.2%
15% -50.9% 13% -35.1%
20% -55.7% 11% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$51 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$33,402
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses62 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 213
History coverage222d ⚠
Avg bet$128
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $284 $270 −$14 (-5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes $25 $60 +$36 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $212 +$6 +3%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $80 −$10 -12%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 17 $28 +$2 +6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $168 +$3 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 +$4 +14%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 13 $272 −$272 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $190 +$119 +63%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -81%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 12 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $401 +$29 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $44 +$2 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $193 −$36 -18%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $109 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 21 $1,348 +$181 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $162 +$138 +85%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $104 −$3 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 12 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 12 $239 −$239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 12 $267 −$264 -99%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $3,264 +$188 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 12 $236 +$169 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 12 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 12 $71 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $218 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $25 17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $212 26h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $0 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $284 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 6d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes $13 6d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 6d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $57 6d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes $5 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $171 6d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $8 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes $58 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $2 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $6 6d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes $8 6d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes $10 6d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes $0 6d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes $6 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $14 7d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $7 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $168 8d
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes $28 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No $6 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No $1 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.41 · official $330.41 (match) · 3500 history records