Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d42…8fbb world 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$796 (+3%) realized +$797 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%106W / 102L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$78
14 days−$88
30 days+$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$208
other 18% +$483
politics 8% +$557
economics 2% −$514
sports 2% −$18
tech 0% +$21
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.3% -13.5% 20% 20% -15.2%
≤30d 23 +4.1% -5.8% 39% 39% -3.5%
≤90d 77 +2.3% -7.5% 48% 40% -12.1%
all 208 +2.2% -7.5% 51% 41% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 41% -7.1%
10% -16.4% 31% -16.0%
15% -24.5% 26% -24.1%
20% -31.9% 15% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$41 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$797
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses106 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)208 / 214
History coverage584d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 46¢ $168 $163 −$5 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 60¢ 62¢ $145 $148 +$3 (+2%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 94¢ $33 $47 +$15 (+45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 46¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10¢ 10¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 66¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $110 +$20 +18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $270 −$29 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $135 −$32 -23%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $674 −$37 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $102 −$10 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $57 −$16 -27%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $39 +$16 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $337 −$13 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $428 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $188 −$34 -18%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $646 +$180 +28%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $58 −$23 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 26 $195 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $710 +$91 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $122 +$128 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $160 +$33 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $160 −$35 -22%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 23 $11 +$5 +47%
Major US official out by May 31? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $334 +$92 +27%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $99 +$59 +59%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $576 −$19 -3%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $493 −$72 -14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $123 +$77 +63%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 14 $508 −$504 -99%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $62 −$34 -55%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $538 −$153 -28%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 06 $132 +$28 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $148 +$4 +3%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 03 $45 +$33 +73%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 02 $87 −$42 -48%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 29 $136 −$77 -57%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? Apr 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? Apr 26 $21 −$1 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $194 +$19 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $367 −$55 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $383 +$9 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $285 −$29 -10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 20 $102 +$44 +43%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $422 −$199 -47%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 19 $200 −$50 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $635 +$124 +20%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 19 $396 +$147 +37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 18 $74 +$28 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 18 $487 −$141 -29%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $299 +$192 +64%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $258 −$123 -48%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $125 +$86 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $100 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 74¢ $6 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 60¢ $4 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 60¢ $63 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $30 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $30 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $48 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 26¢ $3 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 32¢ $16 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 58¢ $69 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 58¢ $18 3h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $142 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $20 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $20 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $120 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $241 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $1 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 60¢ $30 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $120 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $15 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $10 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $40 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $50 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $50 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $50 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $50 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.34 · official $446.34 (match) · 1378 history records