Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d3e…986c sports 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,215 (-5%) realized −$2,186 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%161W / 178L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$659est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$256
14 days−$426
30 days−$926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,422
other 5% −$1,290
crypto 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -20.0% -27.6% 41% 41% -24.7%
≤30d 176 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 44% -15.7%
≤90d 339 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 46% -14.1%
all 339 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -14.1%
10% -24.2% 43% -22.3%
15% -31.5% 40% -29.8%
20% -38.3% 35% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$115 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,186
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses161 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$659
Open positions1
Markets (closed)339 / 340
History coverage56d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi Tori Kinard 63¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$26 -86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $14 +$9 +67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 +$18 +109%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $25 −$11 -45%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14 −$5 -34%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $33 +$37 +109%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $17 +$17 +98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $82 −$80 -99%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $33 +$48 +146%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $53 −$23 -43%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 12 $40 +$16 +40%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $29 +$11 +37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $24 +$5 +23%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $33 −$9 -28%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $33 +$17 +53%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $37 −$4 -11%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $23 +$14 +62%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $32 +$42 +134%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $13 +$18 +139%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $1 +$1 +77%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $4 −$3 -68%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $15 −$11 -72%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $22 −$8 -34%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $96 −$72 -75%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $54 +$41 +76%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $55 −$55 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $67 +$43 +64%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $55 +$12 +22%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Tai Leonard Sach Jun 10 $37 +$18 +50%
ITF Wuning: Hanna Chang vs Reina Goto Jun 10 $60 −$59 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $29 +$31 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $23 +$14 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $15 +$28 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 46m
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi BUY Tori Kinard 63¢ $29 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $14 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $20 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $16 4h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Paulo Dos Santos 69¢ $13 12h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 63¢ $25 13h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 13¢ $10 13h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 43¢ $31 14h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Yecong Mo 59¢ $28 24h
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka BUY Shu Matsuoka 42¢ $31 25h
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda BUY Reina Goto 44¢ $1 25h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $60 25h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 49¢ $28 27h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $40 27h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 49¢ $13 38h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 40¢ $9 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 38¢ $9 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 56¢ $14 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 47¢ $20 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $16 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $18 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 55¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 50¢ $69 3d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan BUY Naoya Honda 47¢ $33 4d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 47¢ $8 4d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 53¢ $8 4d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 53¢ $82 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 780 history records