Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d39…099a crypto 1205 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,154 (-10%) realized −$2,154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%623W / 726L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day85.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$1,450
weather 21% +$364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -88.7% -89.8% 7% 7% -87.7%
≤30d 892 -18.4% -26.1% 43% 38% -41.2%
≤90d 1349 -17.1% -25.0% 46% 40% -30.3%
all 1349 -17.1% -25.0% 46% 40% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 40% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 32% -37.0%
15% -38.8% 23% -43.1%
20% -44.8% 17% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$2,154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses623 / 726
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1349 / 1205
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day85.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 58¢ 58¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? No 69¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? No 69¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 4? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 8? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 3? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 9? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 45¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 45¢ $4 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 40¢ $8 32h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $42 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $52 4d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 45¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 45¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY No 59¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY No 57¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY No 51¢ $29 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $47 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.06 · official $14.62 (match) · 3500 history records