Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d34…15a1
other · 64 markets active 5h ago
3.5score
−$648 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$386 · open −$468
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$1,655
Realized−$386
Unrealized−$468
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage90d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 9 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$1,096
14 days+$114
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 60¢ $1,036 $838 −$198 (-19%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 55¢ 19¢ $386 $134 −$252 (-65%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 91¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 89¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 34¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 44¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 43¢ $287 $0 −$287 (-100%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 11¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? No 16¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 23¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 31¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 23¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ $543 $0 −$543 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by May 15? No 42¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$65 +210%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $103 +$160 +156%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $205 −$14 -7%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $609 +$876 +144%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $679 −$493 -73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $206 −$23 -11%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $245 +$86 +35%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $185 −$34 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $500 +$194 +39%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $101 −$15 -15%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $912 −$291 -32%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $103 −$97 -95%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $202 −$59 -29%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $500 −$145 -29%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $507 −$154 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $200 +$108 +54%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 10 $202 +$65 +32%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $500 +$184 +37%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 26 $230 −$230 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $50 −$46 -93%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$72 +72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $156 +$78 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,100 +$184 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $100 −$87 -86%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $50 +$95 +190%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $200 +$55 +27%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $700 −$700 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 20 $500 −$10 -2%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $500 +$67 +13%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 16 $509 +$261 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Mar 26 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 24 $4 +$2 +45%
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate pa Mar 19 $2 $0 -9%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 19 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$634
world 36% +$758
sports 15% −$755
politics 5% −$385
tech 1% +$225
crypto 0% −$61
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $100 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $100 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $100 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $100 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $95 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $263 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $103 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $109 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $171 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1,000 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 93¢ $143 7d
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $51 7d
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 60¢ $399 7d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 7d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $182 8d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 100¢ $330 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $174 9d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 17¢ $191 9d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $31 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $100 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 11d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 10¢ $150 11d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $694 11d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 12d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 13¢ $86 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +102.3% +83.0% 80% 60% +85.0%
≤30d 21 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 29% -12.2%
≤90d 54 -16.9% -24.8% 44% 35% -12.8%
all 55 -16.7% -24.6% 44% 35% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 35% -12.8%
10% -31.8% 27% -21.2%
15% -38.4% 22% -28.8%
20% -44.4% 15% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,654.65 · official $1,654.65 (match) · 186 history records