Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d32…7e81 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$10
crypto 14% −$1
economics 13% +$2
tech 12% −$1
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 32 +2.6% -7.2% 62% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -16.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -24.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage249d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 11? Nov 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 10? Nov 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 9? Nov 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 2? Nov 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 20-26? Nov 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af Oct 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 18 $21 −$1 -2%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? Oct 17 $21 $0 -1%
Will Liv Boeree win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 16 $727 −$16 -2%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 16 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 16 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 16 $731 −$2 -0%
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025? Oct 16 $735 −$4 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 16 $736 −$1 -0%
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30? Oct 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 14 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 7d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 9d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 17d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes $0 19d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 20d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 24d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $99 27d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 30d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes $0 33d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes $0 33d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 34d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $0 36d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $0 36d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 37d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes $0 40d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 42d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 42d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 192d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 218d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 220d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.28 · official $109.28 (match) · 79 history records