Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d32…401c other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$199 (-4%) realized −$208 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate74%173W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$54
14 days+$26
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$49
politics 23% +$24
sports 16% −$53
world 11% +$7
crypto 8% −$115
tech 6% +$6
weather 4% −$30
economics 2% +$13
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.5% +1.8% 92% 38% +2.8%
≤30d 233 -5.1% -14.2% 74% 30% -13.5%
≤90d 233 -5.1% -14.2% 74% 30% -13.5%
all 233 -5.1% -14.2% 74% 30% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 30% -13.5%
10% -22.4% 11% -21.8%
15% -29.9% 0% -29.3%
20% -36.8% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses173 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions28
Markets (closed)233 / 261
History coverage28d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 96¢ 100¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $57 $61 +$5 (+8%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 92¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+12%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes 76¢ 97¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+28%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%? No 90¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 89¢ 60¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-32%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? No 97¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? No 95¢ 92¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day? No 88¢ 99¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be less than $900M at market close on IPO day? No 92¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? No 94¢ 51¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Jun 29 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 27 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 27 $33 +$9 +28%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 27 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $64 +$5 +8%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $43 +$13 +30%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 23 $12 −$2 -20%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $26 +$4 +13%
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $37 +$10 +26%
Cabo Verde to win the second half? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Brian Harman finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $52 +$5 +10%
Will Chris Gotterup finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $6 $0 +6%
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Jun 21 $12 +$1 +10%
Will JT Poston finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 20 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 17 $25 −$20 -82%
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -40%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $31 +$4 +14%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 14 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $61 −$4 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 12 $32 −$3 -8%
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Patrik Schick: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 12 $49 +$4 +8%
Edson Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $31 +$2 +6%
Alexis Vega: 2+ goals Jun 11 $51 +$3 +5%
Álvaro Fidalgo: 1+ goals Jun 11 $26 −$4 -15%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Costa Rica leading at halftime? Jun 11 $33 +$2 +8%
Nigeria leading at halftime? Jun 10 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $9.75B? Jun 10 $32 +$2 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 10? Jun 10 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in May? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in May? Jun 10 $28 +$1 +5%
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 10 $12 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 2h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 94¢ $31 2h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 95¢ $33 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 12h
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY No 93¢ $28 30h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $15 47h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $24 2d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $35 3d
Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? SELL No 76¢ $9 6d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $21 6d
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 92¢ $32 6d
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 92¢ $32 6d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 76¢ $21 6d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 76¢ $21 6d
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 7d
Cabo Verde to win the second half? BUY No 67¢ $24 8d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 80¢ $15 8d
Will JT Poston finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $21 8d
Will Chris Gotterup finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 94¢ $6 8d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $26 8d
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 79¢ $19 8d
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 79¢ $19 8d
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 91¢ $32 8d
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 94¢ $19 9d
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 94¢ $19 9d
Will Brian Harman finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 91¢ $26 9d
Will Brian Harman finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 90¢ $26 9d
Sweden to win the second half? BUY No 80¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.59 · official $461.59 (match) · 585 history records