Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9D 0x9d32…7829 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$79 (-34%) realized −$85 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-34.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-28.0%	-34.8%	29%	29%	-90.0%
≤30d	7	-28.0%	-34.8%	29%	29%	-90.0%
≤90d	7	-28.0%	-34.8%	29%	29%	-90.0%
all	7	-28.0%	-34.8%	29%	29%	-90.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.8%	29%	-90.0%
10%	-41.1%	29%	-91.0%
15%	-46.8%	29%	-91.8%
20%	-52.0%	29%	-92.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -89% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.07 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$141

Realized−$85

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)7 / 11

History coverage6d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	37¢	40¢	$50	$55	+$5 (+9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$53	$54	+$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	+$5	+250%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2	+$1	+55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$34	−$33	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$51	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$3	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$2	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$3	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.52 · official $140.53 (match) · 16 history records