Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d30…c902 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized −$15 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -24.5% -31.7% 19% 19% -17.0%
≤30d 16 -24.5% -31.7% 19% 19% -17.0%
≤90d 16 -24.5% -31.7% 19% 19% -17.0%
all 16 -24.5% -31.7% 19% 19% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 19% -17.0%
10% -38.2% 19% -25.0%
15% -44.2% 19% -32.2%
20% -49.7% 19% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$30 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 −$96 -63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $106 +$79 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $254 +$155 +61%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 19 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $56 27m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $96 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $153 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $96 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $65 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.30 · official $352.30 (match) · 42 history records