Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d2e…ff2c other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$52
14 days−$16
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$6
world 16% +$58
finance 3% +$14
crypto 1% −$12
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -32.6% -39.0% 50% 33% -25.1%
≤30d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 42% -11.8%
≤90d 19 +8.3% -2.0% 79% 53% -6.9%
all 19 +8.3% -2.0% 79% 53% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 53% -6.9%
10% -11.4% 47% -15.8%
15% -20.0% 26% -23.9%
20% -27.8% 21% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$32 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,214
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)19 / 34
History coverage61d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $84 $166 +$82 (+98%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $80 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $67 $54 −$13 (-19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No 86¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$44 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $20 +$5 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$30 +150%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $20 +$3 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $20 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $35 +$10 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $10 +$6 +64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $10 +$10 +104%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 18 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 59m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 59m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $38 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $50 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 88¢ $20 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,213.53 · official $1,213.53 (match) · 76 history records