Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d2d…395e other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$400 (+8%) realized +$91 · open +$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$287
crypto 9% +$12
politics 4% +$6
finance 4% +$14
tech 1% +$2
economics 1% −$6
world 1% +$3
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.0% +9.5% 100% 100% +9.5%
≤30d 10 +11.9% +1.2% 90% 30% +2.0%
≤90d 33 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 24% -5.2%
all 33 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 24% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 24% -5.2%
10% -22.3% 9% -14.2%
15% -29.8% 3% -22.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$3,246
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$309
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)33 / 57
History coverage87d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,420 $1,557 +$137 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,197 $1,382 +$185 (+15%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 54¢ 51¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $28 $24 −$3 (-12%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 25¢ 19¢ $27 $20 −$6 (-24%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+54%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 86¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 63¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +21%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 04 $12 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 04 $16 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $14 +$5 +38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 04 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $38 +$10 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $6 −$3 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 18 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 12 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $44 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 01 $27 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 28 $16 +$2 +14%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $11 −$11 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 22 $26 −$10 -39%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $69 −$16 -24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 18 $15 −$1 -4%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $32 −$7 -21%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $13 $0 +3%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $52 +$14 +28%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $62 +$4 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $18 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $192 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $107 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $109 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $8 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $92 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $28 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $212 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $23 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $0 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 97¢ $27 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 97¢ $29 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 98¢ $28 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 4d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $58 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $19 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $43 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $68 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $71 11d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $12 15d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $24 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $130 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,245.50 · official $3,240.91 (match) · 272 history records