Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9d2c…4183 crypto 1714 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,220 (+3%) realized +$2,220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%1117W / 597L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$904
7 days−$5,611
14 days−$483
30 days+$577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$652
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -41.4% -46.9% 38% 36% -46.6%
≤30d 710 -17.7% -25.5% 54% 54% -8.7%
≤90d 1714 -0.4% -9.9% 65% 65% -8.7%
all 1714 -0.4% -9.9% 65% 65% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 65% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 65% -17.4%
15% -26.4% 64% -25.4%
20% -33.6% 35% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$39 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1117 / 597
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1714 / 1714
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1714 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$133 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $205 +$110 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $116 −$113 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $145 +$71 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $159 −$155 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$117 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$122 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$115 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$82 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$133 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $158 −$154 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$18 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$128 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $193 −$187 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $79 +$45 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $178 −$174 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$40 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $171 −$167 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$59 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $114 +$77 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $98 +$58 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$43 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$45 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $205 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $116 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $84 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $204 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $145 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $159 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $205 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $205 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $205 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $50 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $205 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $205 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $44 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $44 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $205 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $205 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $206 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $158 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $33 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $204 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $206 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $193 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records