Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d27…4912 world 121 markets active 5h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate26%31W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$8
other 21% −$1
politics 21% +$1
sports 11% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% −$2
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.3% 34% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 77 -1.9% -11.3% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 120 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses31 / 89
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage311d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $106 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $32 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $64 −$2 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $22 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $31 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $59 +$3 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $59 +$2 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $70 −$2 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $107 −$4 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $59 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $49 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $83 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $6 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 09 $36 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $86 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $29 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $29 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $31 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $30 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $8 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $26 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 501 history records