Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d27…addb crypto 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%252W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$15
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$19
finance 2% −$7
other 2% +$2
sports 1% +$2
politics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 259 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 259 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.1%
all 259 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 2.898321292530823% → late -2.603225750317327% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses252 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by less than 10%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.99 · official $20.99 (match) · 522 history records