Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d26…db4b other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$19
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$11
sports 24% −$4
other 22% −$19
crypto 12% −$1
culture 4% −$3
finance 4% −$2
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$14
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 63 -0.7% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 118 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 143 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 118
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage107d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 97¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $291 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $127 −$2 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $63 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $435 −$3 -1%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $220 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -2%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $302 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $273 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $271 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $44 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $47 2h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 9h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 9h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $61 13h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 14h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 20h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 21h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 25h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 25h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 31h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $39 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 41h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $64 41h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 45h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $47 46h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $48 2d
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $45 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $32 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $13 2d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $9 2d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 3d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $63 3d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.72 · official $58.72 (match) · 558 history records