Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d25…3ff5 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$8
world 27% −$2
crypto 13% +$1
politics 6% −$4
tech 5% $0
sports 4% +$5
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -1.7% -11.0% 20% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.8%
all 43 -3.5% -12.7% 44% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 5% -8.9%
10% -21.1% 5% -17.7%
15% -28.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage482d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 47¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $29 −$2 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $70 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 04 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 03 $18 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will 'Abyss' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'Train to the End of the World' win Crunchyroll's Best Original A May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 18 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 07 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 07 $22 +$1 +4%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
South Dakota vs. Oral Roberts Mar 20 $17 +$5 +27%
Utah vs. Arizona Feb 26 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $31 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $31 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $19 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $8 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $4 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $31 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $34 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $34 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $27 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $29 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $33 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $10 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $26 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $37 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $34 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $34 31d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 100¢ $7 362d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 368d
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $17 382d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 383d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 383d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 383d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 383d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 383d
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? BUY No 98¢ $17 383d
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? SELL No 99¢ $17 383d
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 99¢ $17 384d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 384d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.31 · official $34.31 (match) · 125 history records