Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d20…d646
sports · 84 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$1,149 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,587 · open −$154
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$1,289
Realized+$1,587
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions7
Markets (closed)73 / 84
History coverage94d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 7 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days+$470
14 days+$1,969
30 days+$1,976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,090 $992 −$98 (-9%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $100 $160 +$60 (+60%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $46 −$54 (-54%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $21 $6 −$15 (-70%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 27¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Over 39¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 54¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins LG Twins 46¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins SSG Landers 16¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 53¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? No 79¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Korea Republic 37¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos LG Twins 66¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Japan 73¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 13¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos LG Twins 33¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 22¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 39¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-2.5) Beşiktaş JK 24¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$32 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $168 −$162 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$252 +246%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $26 −$22 -88%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$64 +126%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $235 −$230 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$268 +1735%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$118 +116%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $815 +$82 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $31 −$8 -27%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $157 −$155 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $99 +$106 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $163 +$238 +146%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $21 −$20 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 06 $61 −$60 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 05 $51 +$115 +226%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Jun 04 $71 +$27 +37%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $515 +$1,394 +271%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $51 +$23 +46%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 30 $110 +$7 +6%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $37 −$36 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 05 $33 +$4 +12%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. SSG Landers May 05 $5 +$2 +31%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins May 05 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $25 −$5 -18%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Apr 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17? Apr 17 $9 +$2 +27%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15? Apr 14 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 1? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Türkiye vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 14 $131 −$103 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Apr 14 $258 +$4 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Apr 14 $424 −$310 -73%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Apr 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$343
sports 20% +$243
weather 15% −$270
politics 9% +$1,404
crypto 5% −$220
world 2% −$104
finance 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $82 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $66 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants $3 3h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 23¢ $26 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 13¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $115 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 8h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 9h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $102 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $51 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 28¢ $102 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $51 9h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $283 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $220 10h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $897 10h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 38¢ $21 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $815 12h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 12h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY $10 14h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $31 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +77.8% +60.8% 43% 38% +9.1%
≤30d 27 +78.5% +61.5% 52% 44% +47.5%
≤90d 65 +21.9% +10.3% 48% 40% +16.6%
all 73 +19.6% +8.2% 49% 42% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 42% +14.8%
10% -2.1% 38% +3.8%
15% -11.6% 33% -6.2%
20% -20.3% 29% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.91 · official $1,389.29 · 194 history records