Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9D 0x9d1f…355a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$114 (+26%) realized +$114 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+49.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+65.4%	+49.7%	67%	67%	+67.3%
≤30d	3	+65.4%	+49.7%	67%	67%	+67.3%
≤90d	3	+65.4%	+49.7%	67%	67%	+67.3%
all	3	+65.4%	+49.7%	67%	67%	+67.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+49.7%	67%	+67.3%
10%	+35.3%	67%	+51.3%
15%	+22.3%	67%	+36.7%
20%	+10.3%	67%	+23.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +85% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +65% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$107 vs −$29 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.44 per $1 lost it wins $7.44

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$226

Realized+$114

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$204	$202	−$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$22	$23	+$1 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$137	+$96	+70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$29	−$29	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$52	+$118	+226%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$205	36m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	8¢	$23	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$233	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$137	13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	18¢	$29	13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$169	23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	30¢	$52	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.66 · official $225.66 (match) · 7 history records