Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9d1f…b0fe politics 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$7
politics 35% −$9
sports 16% −$4
world 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,267) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage92d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,273 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $1,177 −$2 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 23 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 23 $1,267 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 22 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 22 $1,328 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $731 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $28 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $64 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $758 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 14 $723 −$2 -0%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $806 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 24 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,271 12m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 22m
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 33m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 43m
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 59m
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $864 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $311 3h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,177 3h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,304 23h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 23h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 23h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,264 24h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 24h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,267 24h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 24h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,230 25h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 25h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,007 25h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $37 25h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 25h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 25h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 25h
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $46 39h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,315 39h
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $18 39h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,305 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.25 · official $56.25 (match) · 110 history records