Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d1a…4d5b other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$440 (-11%) realized −$578 · open +$138
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%23W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days+$210
14 days+$210
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$230
weather 13% −$88
sports 13% −$8
world 4% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +72.6% +56.1% 46% 46% +5.6%
≤30d 31 +18.4% +7.1% 45% 45% -10.2%
≤90d 51 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 43% -20.1%
all 51 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 43% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 43% -20.1%
10% -19.3% 39% -27.7%
15% -27.1% 33% -34.7%
20% -34.2% 20% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$62 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$578
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage76d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $30 $140 +$110 (+368%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $234 +$101 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$85 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $133 +$153 +116%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$143 +694%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$41 -40%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$184 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 13 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 01 $51 −$18 -35%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $152 +$77 +51%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $151 −$150 -99%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $122 −$20 -16%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$84 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 22? May 23 $5 +$5 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22? May 23 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? May 23 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 22? May 22 $26 −$15 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 17? May 18 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? May 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 15? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14? May 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14? May 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14? May 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14? May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5 May 14 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $92 −$50 -55%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $241 −$52 -22%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $202 +$92 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12? May 13 $51 +$15 +29%
Will Wigan Athletic FC win on 2026-04-02? May 12 $200 +$135 +67%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $188 −$188 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 35¢ $237 10m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $31 36m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $98 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $102 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $61 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 92¢ $186 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $101 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $102 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 90¢ $163 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $60 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $21 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 47¢ $152 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $51 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $72 4d
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $33 16d
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 16d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 66¢ $152 16d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 44¢ $102 24d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 67¢ $51 24d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 68¢ $101 24d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 98¢ $163 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.39 · official $268.39 (match) · 104 history records