Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d18…2065 crypto 935 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (273 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,147 (+26%) realized +$1,156 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%576W / 352L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day273.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$667
7 days−$142
14 days+$406
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$640
other 19% −$240
sports 4% −$4
world 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (273 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 661 +8.5% -1.8% 61% 60% -13.9%
≤30d 928 +11.7% +1.1% 62% 49% -3.5%
≤90d 928 +11.7% +1.1% 62% 49% -3.5%
all 928 +11.7% +1.1% 62% 49% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover273.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 49% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 49% -12.7%
15% -17.4% 23% -21.1%
20% -25.5% 10% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$1,156
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses576 / 352
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)928 / 935
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day273.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 928 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 65¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 62¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 60¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 63¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +74%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +33%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +78%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 26m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.95 · official $14.75 · 3500 history records