Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d13…f6cb crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$131 (-17%) realized −$204 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$204
14 days−$204
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$237
sports 26% −$50
other 4% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -24.8% -31.9% 38% 38% -37.0%
≤30d 26 -24.8% -31.9% 38% 38% -37.0%
≤90d 26 -24.8% -31.9% 38% 38% -37.0%
all 26 -24.8% -31.9% 38% 38% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 38% -37.0%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 38% -43.0%
15% -44.4% 27% -48.5%
20% -49.8% 19% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$36 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $86 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $79 −$41 -52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$28 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 38m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 42m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 6¢ $4 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.08 (match) · 47 history records