Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

9D 0x9d13…e9dc sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$2,018 (+20%) realized +$2,109 · open −$91

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$412per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$57est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$883

7 days+$2,520

14 days+$2,520

30 days+$2,520

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+20.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+33.6%	+20.9%	70%	70%	+15.4%
≤30d	20	+33.6%	+20.9%	70%	70%	+15.4%
≤90d	20	+33.6%	+20.9%	70%	70%	+15.4%
all	20	+33.6%	+20.9%	70%	70%	+15.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.9%	70%	+15.4%
10%	+9.3%	70%	+4.3%
15%	-1.3%	70%	-5.8%
20%	-11.0%	50%	-15.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late +44% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$310 vs −$304 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$409

Realized+$2,109

Unrealized−$91

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$57

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 25

History coverage14d

Avg bet$412

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Over	66¢	62¢	$300	$284	−$16 (-5%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Yes	17¢	12¢	$100	$74	−$26 (-26%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Yes	56¢	28¢	$100	$51	−$49 (-49%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND	Jun 26	$100	+$140	+140%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$304	+$213	+70%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$305	+$381	+125%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$305	−$300	-98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2	Jun 26	$294	+$133	+45%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$304	+$204	+67%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$325	−$320	-99%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 25	$103	+$226	+220%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 25	$103	+$79	+77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$306	−$302	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$304	+$222	+73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$304	−$300	-99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$303	+$115	+38%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$305	+$392	+128%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 24	$305	−$300	-98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 24	$308	+$238	+77%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$305	−$300	-98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$308	+$147	+48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$305	+$383	+125%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$3,994	+$1,470	+37%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND	SELL	90¢	$240	13m
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$517	46m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND	BUY	36¢	$100	1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$304	1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	66¢	$303	1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	94¢	$687	16h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	41¢	$305	18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	46¢	$305	18h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2	SELL	99¢	$427	19h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$508	19h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2	BUY	68¢	$294	21h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$325	21h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	59¢	$304	21h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	SELL Yes	50¢	$328	22h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire?	SELL Yes	26¢	$182	22h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	24h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	59¢	$306	24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$526	41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$304	43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$304	43h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL	99¢	$417	44h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-0	BUY	33¢	$306	46h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	71¢	$303	46h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$697	47h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$305	2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$305	2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo:	BUY	33¢	$306	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.83 · official $408.85 (match) · 39 history records