Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d12…9591 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$701 (-14%) realized −$669 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2,969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$911
sports 9% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.3% -19.7% 33% 33% -48.8%
≤30d 9 -11.3% -19.7% 33% 33% -48.8%
≤90d 9 -11.3% -19.7% 33% 33% -48.8%
all 9 -11.3% -19.7% 33% 33% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 33% -48.8%
10% -27.4% 33% -53.7%
15% -34.4% 33% -58.1%
20% -40.9% 22% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$163 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,969
Realized−$669
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,100 $1,113 +$13 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $510 $584 +$74 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $700 $557 −$143 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $292 $290 −$3 (-1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $587 −$316 -54%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 −$162 -79%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $204 +$88 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$87 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $300 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $102 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $89 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $259 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $259 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $329 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $144 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $175 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 8¢ $42 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 59¢ $291 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $204 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 87¢ $188 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $102 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $268 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,969.43 · official $2,969.43 (match) · 39 history records