Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9d0d…8248 other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$11
politics 39% −$14
sports 10% +$44
crypto 6% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -4.8% -13.9% 7% 4% -9.7%
all 90 +0.6% -9.0% 11% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 6% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×9.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage118d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $364 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $254 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $305 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $229 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $270 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $235 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $225 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 30 $257 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $298 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,213 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $243 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $309 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $249 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $288 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $329 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $305 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $265 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $851 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $306 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $308 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $317 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $310 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $252 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $271 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $300 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $299 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $231 −$2 -1%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $321 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $238 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 15d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 18d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 32d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $323 32d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $323 36d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $254 41d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $254 45d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $305 48d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $305 48d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $233 48d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 48d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 48d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 49d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 49d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 50d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $235 50d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $235 51d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 51d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 51d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $326 52d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $326 52d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 52d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 52d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $224 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.95 · official $51.95 (match) · 287 history records