Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d0c…201f world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-1%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%16W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$38
world 32% −$34
politics 15% −$5
sports 11% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +14.0% +3.1% 34% 3% -11.0%
≤90d 40 +9.3% -1.1% 35% 2% -10.6%
all 57 +6.4% -3.7% 28% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 2% -10.5%
10% -12.9% 2% -19.1%
15% -21.3% 2% -26.9%
20% -29.0% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage269d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $118 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $188 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $61 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $170 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $120 −$3 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $55 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $213 +$8 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $153 −$41 -27%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $58 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $86 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $56 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $621 +$1 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $9 −$1 -7%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $143 −$33 -23%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $263 −$5 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $3 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $657 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1,255 +$1 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 10 $99 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $123 $0 +0%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 08 $252 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $126 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 08 $63 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 08 $141 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $62 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $62 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $54 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $2 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $56 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $49 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $57 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $63 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $63 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $47 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $63 34h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $62 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $62 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $11 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $63 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $63 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $61 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $61 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records