Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9D 0x9d0a…e9c8 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$56 (-3%) realized +$72 · open −$128

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$113per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-3.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+7.2%	-3.0%	50%	44%	-12.6%
≤30d	18	+7.2%	-3.0%	50%	44%	-12.6%
≤90d	18	+7.2%	-3.0%	50%	44%	-12.6%
all	18	+7.2%	-3.0%	50%	44%	-12.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.0%	44%	-12.6%
10%	-12.3%	44%	-21.0%
15%	-20.8%	33%	-28.6%
20%	-28.5%	28%	-35.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -51% → late +65% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$86 vs −$93 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.92 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized+$72

Unrealized−$128

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage6d

Avg bet$113

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	57¢	6¢	$142	$15	−$128 (-89%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$149	+$100	+67%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 22	$101	+$199	+197%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$110	−$109	-98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first?	Jun 21	$16	+$84	+517%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	Jun 21	$46	+$13	+27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$266	+$184	+69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$210	−$207	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$184	+$15	+8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$109	+$30	+27%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$12	−$12	-97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	Jun 18	$6	−$6	-100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$11	−$11	-97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$55	−$53	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$249	−$246	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$174	+$74	+43%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$74	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$149	−$148	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	57¢	$144	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$250	26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$149	29h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	33¢	$101	45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	49¢	$110	2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	16¢	$16	2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	SELL Curaçao	73¢	$59	2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	BUY Curaçao	57¢	$12	2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	BUY Curaçao	57¢	$3	2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	BUY Curaçao	57¢	$31	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$450	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$60	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$206	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$51	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$210	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	92¢	$184	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	79¢	$139	4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$12	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$109	4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	6¢	$3	4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	16¢	$55	5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$142	5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$107	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$248	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 36 history records