Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d09…b490 crypto 590 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,212 (-44%) realized −$527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%153W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day93.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$250
14 days−$250
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$475
other 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -30.9% -37.5% 39% 34% -31.6%
≤30d 300 -31.2% -37.8% 39% 34% -36.4%
≤90d 590 -28.5% -35.3% 26% 23% -24.6%
all 590 -28.5% -35.3% 26% 23% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 23% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 13% -31.8%
15% -47.2% 11% -38.4%
20% -52.4% 10% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses153 / 437
Open positions0
Markets (closed)590 / 590
History coverage31d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day93.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records