trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -1.1% | -10.6% | 7% | 7% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -1.1% | -10.6% | 7% | 7% | -10.3% |
| all | 28 | -3.8% | -12.9% | 36% | 4% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.9% | 4% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -21.3% | 0% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -28.9% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $112 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -16% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $74 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 10 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $83 | −$1 | -1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $40 | −$2 | -6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 04 | $4 | $0 | -6% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +17% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 03 | $23 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Apr 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| US military action against Iran before April? | Mar 31 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 20 | $13 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 18 | $14 | $0 | +0% |