Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d09…bd37 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+14%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$11
crypto 36% −$3
other 14% +$1
weather 5% −$2
economics 2% +$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.0% -14.1% 56% 39% +9.1%
≤30d 40 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 42% +1.2%
≤90d 40 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 42% +1.2%
all 40 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 42% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 42% +1.2%
10% -21.8% 38% -8.5%
15% -29.4% 32% -17.3%
20% -36.3% 28% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$8 +112%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +121%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$1 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 44¢ $0 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 46¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 44¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 29h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 81¢ $1 45h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 8¢ $1 45h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 11¢ $0 45h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 9¢ $1 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $1 45h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 25¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY SPARTA 59¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Heretics 38¢ $2 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 44¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 51¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 82¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 74¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 61¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.16 · official $7.16 (match) · 107 history records