Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d04…9bf7 other 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 214L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$36
sports 21% −$19
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 223 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage127d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $448 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $602 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $111 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $317 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $541 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $415 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $219 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $277 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $232 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $187 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $310 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $129 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 5h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 6h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 8h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 10h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 11h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 12h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 14h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 16h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 17h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 19h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 20h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 21h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 23h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 24h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 29h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 31h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 32h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 39h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 41h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 45h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 46h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1324 history records