Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d03…e976 crypto 1033 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,422 (-9%) realized −$1,422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate45%587W / 709L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,667
7 days−$1,674
14 days−$1,899
30 days−$2,054
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,056
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 386 -71.8% -74.5% 8% 3% -63.4%
≤30d 597 -49.7% -54.5% 25% 15% -31.9%
≤90d 1296 -37.3% -43.2% 45% 15% -24.8%
all 1296 -37.3% -43.2% 45% 15% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.2% 15% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -48.7% 7% -32.0%
15% -53.6% 4% -38.6%
20% -58.2% 3% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses587 / 709
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1296 / 1033
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$26 -875%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$21 -808%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.53 · official $2.53 (match) · 3500 history records