Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9cfe…dc74 world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$237 (+9%) realized +$237 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days+$17
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$33
politics 13% +$8
sports 12% +$92
other 9% +$52
finance 3% +$1
weather 1% +$44
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 25 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 4% -8.3%
≤90d 29 +1.1% -8.5% 45% 3% -8.4%
all 54 +8.6% -1.8% 57% 19% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 19% -1.3%
10% -11.2% 17% -10.8%
15% -19.7% 13% -19.4%
20% -27.6% 11% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.2 per $1 lost it wins $10.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage525d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 46¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 29¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $204 −$8 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $24 −$3 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $60 +$26 +44%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $4 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $89 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 23 $66 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $115 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 20 $66 +$11 +16%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 16? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $148 −$1 -1%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora" Mar 04 $48 +$16 +33%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 16? Mar 04 $141 +$9 +6%
Mt. St. Mary's vs. Canisius Feb 16 $184 +$5 +3%
Missouri vs. Georgia Feb 16 $31 +$25 +79%
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Feb 16 $93 +$66 +71%
San Diego vs. Pepperdine Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 14 $72 +$20 +28%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Wednesday? Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 5? Feb 06 $23 +$44 +194%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 05 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? Feb 05 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 05 $9 +$10 +121%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 27 $11 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $27 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $8 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $13 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $1 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $66 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $49 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $48 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $42 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $39 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.88 · official $27.43 (match) · 223 history records