Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cfd…8b8d world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$3
other 9% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -3.4% -12.6% 31% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 16 -3.4% -12.6% 31% 0% -10.1%
all 29 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage456d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $40 −$4 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -38%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $1 $0 -11%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $41 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $39 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records