Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cf8…7f09 sports 277 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$507 (+2%) realized +$384 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%105W / 151L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$816
14 days+$189
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$892
sports 32% −$710
other 21% −$560
world 10% +$772
politics 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 20% -63.2%
≤30d 13 +9.2% -1.2% 69% 46% -6.1%
≤90d 76 -51.4% -56.0% 29% 24% -16.6%
all 256 -13.9% -22.1% 41% 39% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 39% -8.2%
10% -29.5% 37% -17.0%
15% -36.4% 33% -25.0%
20% -42.6% 27% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$39 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$4,548
Realized+$384
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses105 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions21
Markets (closed)256 / 277
History coverage600d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $607 $684 +$77 (+13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $370 $675 +$305 (+82%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 74¢ $500 $468 −$32 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 57¢ $500 $411 −$89 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $235 +$55 (+31%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $175 $227 +$52 (+30%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $145 +$35 (+32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $125 $127 +$2 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $102 $93 −$9 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $85 −$35 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $94 $75 −$19 (-21%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $120 $75 −$45 (-37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $51 $67 +$16 (+31%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $65 −$45 (-41%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $462 +$48 +10%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 11 $309 −$305 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $29 +$21 +72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,547 +$173 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $395 +$41 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,156 +$73 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,019 +$321 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $815 +$398 +49%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $98 +$29 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $33 +$67 +206%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $66 +$33 +50%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $36 +$32 +90%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $103 +$97 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $307 −$271 -88%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $100 +$15 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 26 $152 +$212 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prel Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 26 $104 −$104 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh Apr 25 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $29 +$58 +200%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $775 +$215 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $246 +$10 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 28 $100 −$21 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Santos vs. Yoo Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sola vs. McKee Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Noche UFC: Garcia vs. Gordon Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva Mar 22 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang Mar 22 $22 −$22 -100%
UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Mar 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Noche UFC: Puelles vs. Silva Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Preli Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Almeida vs. Aswell Jr. Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – Both Teams To Score? Mar 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Noche UFC: Font vs. Martinez Mar 22 $32 −$32 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yizha vs. Wilson Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Alekseeva vs. Mesquita Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy Mar 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 75¢ $403 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $80 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 4d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $38 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 5d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $309 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $222 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $380 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $462 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $71 6d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $46 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $88 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $129 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $57 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $93 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $93 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $247 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,548.29 · official $4,548.06 (match) · 1389 history records