Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

9C 0x9cf8…ca1f politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate8%1W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$181per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$4

7 days−$4

14 days−$4

30 days−$4

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤30d	11	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	11	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
all	13	+0.1%	-9.5%	8%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.5%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-18.1%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-26.0%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-33.3%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late -0% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage

Net worth$373

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)8%

Wins / losses1 / 12

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage250d

Avg bet$181

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$357	$357	−$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	95¢	97¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$348	−$1	-0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$189	$0	-0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$189	$0	-0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$169	$0	-0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$209	$0	-0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$198	$0	-0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$169	$0	-0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$229	$0	-0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 21	$189	$0	-0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 21	$198	$0	-0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 21	$189	$0	-0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	Dec 16	$15	$0	+3%
Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?	Oct 16	$49	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$169	2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$159	3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$189	4h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$159	5h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	5h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$189	10h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$168	12h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	12h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	15h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$169	15h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	17h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$198	17h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$169	25h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$228	28h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$169	29h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$198	29h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$229	32h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$188	36h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$188	37h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$198	38h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	38h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$188	39h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	40h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	40h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$198	42h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$15	189d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	SELL No	99¢	$16	189d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	BUY No	97¢	$15	229d
Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?	SELL No	100¢	$49	250d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.58 · official $372.58 (match) · 33 history records