Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9cf7…e5a5 sports 1157 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,697 (-8%) realized −$6,696 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%413W / 743L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$773est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days−$1,180
30 days−$1,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$8,734
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 50% -6.7%
≤30d 116 -9.6% -18.2% 34% 34% -18.7%
≤90d 899 -9.6% -18.2% 36% 36% -17.9%
all 1156 -9.4% -18.0% 36% 36% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 36% -18.8%
10% -25.9% 36% -26.5%
15% -33.0% 36% -33.6%
20% -39.6% 35% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$73 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$6,696
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses413 / 743
Est. fees paid−$773
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1156 / 1157
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$74
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 380 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak Jun 17 $98 −$92 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $119 −$117 -98%
ITF Tauste: Ru Xi Wu vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 17 $100 +$117 +117%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$105 +105%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $66 −$41 -62%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau Jun 10 $99 −$97 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $102 +$166 +162%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $144 −$142 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 10 $136 −$134 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Stefan Storch Jun 10 $91 +$193 +213%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $117 −$115 -98%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Antoni Fabre vs Nicolas Garcia Longo Jun 10 $99 +$218 +220%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $98 −$96 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Los Angeles: Abigail Haile vs Victoria Mulville Jun 10 $127 +$164 +129%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $149 +$178 +119%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $98 −$96 -98%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $111 −$109 -98%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $33 +$176 +537%
ITF Cuiaba: Justina Gonzalez Daniele vs Julia Konishi Camargo Silva Jun 09 $113 +$169 +150%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 09 $79 +$35 +44%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente Jun 09 $101 −$99 -98%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $98 −$98 -100%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $96 −$94 -98%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $157 −$155 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $102 +$105 +103%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $136 +$234 +172%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $88 −$86 -98%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $102 +$211 +206%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 08 $99 +$136 +137%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 08 $40 −$39 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $99 +$202 +204%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $132 +$219 +165%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $101 +$130 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak SELL Marcel Latak $6 20m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $100 21m
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak BUY Marcel Latak 44¢ $98 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $119 1h
ITF Tauste: Ru Xi Wu vs Yasmine Mansouri SELL Ru Xi Wu 100¢ $217 1h
ITF Tauste: Ru Xi Wu vs Yasmine Mansouri BUY Ru Xi Wu 45¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $205 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $100 2h
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Jeline Vandromme 39¢ $25 7d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Laura Siegemund 10¢ $25 7d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau BUY Matteo Martineau 32¢ $99 7d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 33¢ $102 7d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Laura Siegemund 25¢ $66 7d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu SELL Thijs Boogaard 99¢ $267 7d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $144 7d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 31¢ $102 7d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu BUY Thijs Boogaard 37¢ $102 7d
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Noma Noha Akugue 47¢ $136 7d
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Stefan Storch SELL Stefan Storch 99¢ $284 7d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra BUY Lois Boisson 43¢ $117 7d
ITF Curtea de Arges: Antoni Fabre vs Nicolas Garcia Longo SELL Nicolas Garcia Longo 100¢ $317 7d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 33¢ $98 7d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Gauthier Onclin 38¢ $102 7d
ITF Curtea de Arges: Antoni Fabre vs Nicolas Garcia Longo BUY Nicolas Garcia Longo 31¢ $99 7d
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Stefan Storch BUY Stefan Storch 31¢ $91 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 7d
ITF Los Angeles: Abigail Haile vs Victoria Mulville BUY Abigail Haile 43¢ $127 7d
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto SELL Juan Estevez 98¢ $327 8d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Nikola Bartunkova 30¢ $100 8d
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $98 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.07 · official $97.07 (match) · 3500 history records