Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cf6…0684 other 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$139 (-8%) realized +$19 · open −$158
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%28W / 37L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$153
14 days+$242
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$7
crypto 15% −$27
tech 10% +$67
sports 7% −$31
world 3% −$28
politics 2% −$13
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +154.3% +130.1% 83% 83% +132.0%
≤30d 25 +19.7% +8.3% 60% 56% +31.7%
≤90d 60 -5.1% -14.1% 47% 38% +7.4%
all 65 -12.4% -20.7% 43% 35% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 35% +5.7%
10% -28.3% 20% -4.5%
15% -35.3% 18% -13.7%
20% -41.6% 15% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses28 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)65 / 80
History coverage122d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $355 $217 −$138 (-39%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 29¢ 26¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 55¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+38%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $13 $10 −$3 (-26%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-52%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 53¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$184 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 +$32 +66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $96 +$63 +65%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 $0 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$32 +71%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $20 −$5 -27%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? May 30 $1 $0 -3%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 30 $5 −$1 -26%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? May 30 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? May 20 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 13 $1 $0 -22%
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? May 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 10 $3 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? May 03 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $10 −$1 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 03 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 03 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? May 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 03 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 25m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 63¢ $49 25m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY 14¢ $31 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 43¢ $76 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Wi BUY 29¢ $128 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $159 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 10¢ $4 9d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 14d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 15d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.95 · official $418.48 · 302 history records