Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cf0…dc2b crypto 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,812 (-18%) realized −$2,812 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%162W / 143L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$39
14 days+$136
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,859
other 3% −$15
sports 1% −$36
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -15.7% -23.8% 49% 46% -6.0%
≤30d 155 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 49% -4.6%
≤90d 261 -15.0% -23.1% 49% 43% -53.3%
all 305 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 46% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 46% -26.5%
10% -23.6% 40% -33.5%
15% -31.0% 35% -40.0%
20% -37.7% 29% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$54 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,812
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses162 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage639d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$25 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$22 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$13 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$14 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $56 +$31 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $48 −$15 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$11 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $44 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$16 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$11 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$11 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$12 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$16 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $18 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $30 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $40 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1799 history records